New driving force of industrial transformation and upgrading

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In the first three quarters, the domestic macro-economy was in good operation, not only to achieve the goal of soft landing, but also to maintain a sound monetary policy and to implement all policies of structural adjustment, the GDP growth rate has recovered slightly. The data show that in August 2017, the added value of industries above scale increased by 6.0% year on year, and from January to August, the added value of industries above scale increased by 6.7% year-on-year. In general, the production growth rate of high energy consumption manufacturing industry has been declining, but the high-tech industry and equipment manufacturing industry maintain a rapid growth rate, and relevant investment also accelerates the flow to emerging industries. The growth rate of investment in innovation and innovation continued to increase, with the industrial transformation and upgrading, China’s economy accelerated the transformation of new and new kinetic energy.

In the chemical industry, the specific measures of environmental protection supervision policy are fully implemented, and the backward capacity is fully cleared, and the prosperity of some industries has recovered. In addition, the demand growth in emerging fields is obvious. In the first half of the year, due to the constant correction of industrial capacity, commencement rate and value, the profitability of the enterprises has been improved continuously. In the first half of the year, the black system is adopted The bull market market created by products represents the overall improvement of the operation of the enterprise in order to win a good situation in the industry by collective loss turning and inventory cycle support.

However, entering the traditional demand peak season of jinjiuyin 10 chemical industry, the market trend is not satisfactory. Because of the lack of obvious highlights in domestic demand growth, the environmental protection policy storm is flat, and the commencement rate of some industries has gradually recovered and even has been at a high level in the past years. However, there is no significant increase in actual consumption. Therefore, black products have the first to take the lead in the plunge market, but the industry is open The work rate is still high, and it is likely to enter the inventory removal cycle again. Therefore, the overheating of some industries in the first half of the year will be further adjusted after entering the fourth quarter, which is not conducive to the clear of backward production capacity, and it is likely that the results of the stage of supply side structural adjustment will fail. Therefore, the chemical industry in the second half of the year is in a “cooling” stage. The bubble of all kinds of “conceptual” speculation will be digested by the market itself.

From the external environment, the US scale reduction is expected to continue to strengthen, but the real economic recovery momentum is still weak, the impact risk to emerging economies remains, and other major foreign trade zones such as Europe are facing the exit of monetary easing cycle, and the spread of trade protectionism barriers in the global scope will continue to pressure the domestic and foreign export situation, and the growth rate is expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter.

Thus, the domestic macroeconomic growth rate will continue to operate at the bottom of L-type in the second half of the year, while emerging areas are not enough to support the effective demand to occupy the main proportion. The imbalance of traditional domain structure is difficult to be effectively reversed in the short term. The overall cooling cycle of specific industries in chemical industry will be in a cooling cycle, which will affect the data of industrial added value will likely be weak. Without new kinetic energy and consumption growth highlights, the investment growth rate of chemical industry will continue to decline and it is likely to continue to grow negatively. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the market focus of chemical products will seek bottom support, and it is likely that the black system will be the first, and the overall storage period is expected to be relatively long, the expected cycle of enterprise benefits in the industry will decline periodically, and the price bubble in some industries will be bubble Foam and the space of false high profit will be rational return, and be effectively compressed.

Post time: Nov-04-2020